I asked Chatgpt if the proposed $2b Hobart stadium could turn a profit.
The question came to me after I attended the Hobart public hospital emergency department. It was PACKED, with stretchers in the aisles.
Why spend on a stadium when the hospital desperately needs resources?
Here’s Chatgpt’s answer.
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A $2 billion stadium for an island of 500,000 residents is very unlikely to be profitable in normal conditions. Here’s why:
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⚖️ 1. Population and Market Size
A population of 500,000 is relatively small.
Even if every resident attended a few events a year, the total ticket revenue and concessions would usually fall far short of recovering a $2 billion capital cost.
Large, profitable stadiums (e.g. in New York, London, Tokyo) depend on millions of nearby residents, tourists, and corporate buyers.
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💰 2. Scale of Investment vs. Economic Base
$2 billion equals $4,000 per person on the island — a massive per-capita cost.
The local economy likely cannot support enough high-value events (international sports, concerts, conventions) to cover the cost without heavy subsidies.
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🎫 3. Revenue Streams
Typical stadium revenue sources:
Ticket sales
Concessions & merchandise
Naming rights & sponsorships
Corporate suites
Non-sporting events (concerts, expos)
In small markets, most of these are limited. Sponsorship deals and TV rights are usually smaller too.
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🏗️ 4. Operating Costs
Even after construction, yearly maintenance, staffing, and utilities can reach tens of millions.
If events are infrequent, the operating cost can easily exceed annual revenue.
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🧾 Bottom line
A $2 billion stadium on an island of 500,000 people would almost certainly lose money in direct financial terms.