How global warming makes it cold

As discussed earlier, the weakened polar vortex in the northern hemisphere increases the likelihood of Arctic blasts creating record cold in some areas.

This tweet screenshot shows cold weather hitting Finland, as it experiences record cold temperatures.

Such cold snaps are produced as evidence by some that global warming is not happening, when in fact, it is part of the warming process.

Something else that happens – as cold air leaves the pole, hotter air moves in from elsewhere and melts polar ice.

Polar vortex and Tasmanian weather

I made a movie (below) of the polar vortexes using snippets from earth.nullschool.net

It uses all the available years from the nullschool website.

The northern hemisphere vortex has changed the most in recent years, as has northern weather.

As climate change affects the southern hemisphere, changes in the vortex and jetstream may influence Tasmanian weather.

For example, Tasmania may get polar blasts, more extreme rain events, and extended heat waves, as the vortex breaks down.

The vortex has had a stabilising effect on weather as it moves things along. Uncertainties lay ahead.

There are some good analytic videos on YouTube about the jetstream.

My video simply depicts the annual vortex over time, make of it what you will.

What goes around comes around

Wildfires in Siberia in 2019
Siberian wildfires have been accompanied by great floods happening at the same time

Siberia has been ablaze again this year, with the fires this decade worse than at any time in the past 10,000 years, according to this report.

What is bizarre this year is severe flooding and fires happening almost side by side, according to this report.

These are not everyday floods, but floods that have risen to the third floor of buildings.

Vast Siberian fires also happened back in 2015. And 2016. And 2017. And 2018.

Much the same is happening in the high latitudes elsewhere.

The point of this post in relation to Tasmania?

Tasmania is getting warmer and drier, and it is already a windy place, with dry lightning strikes hitting the forests in summer.

Forests across the world are burning.

The Tasmanian fires last year were possibly just a shot across the bow.

Take the hint and prepare your property for a more fiery world.

Meanwhile, here’s a reminder that it does get hot in Tassie, even in the Huon.

Dead trees in the Huon

Dead trees in the Huon Valley ... is this normal?
Dead trees in the Huon Valley … is this normal?

Seems to be a lot of dead trees in the Huon Valley, and they are well outside of last year’s burned areas.

They are on north and south facing slopes.

Is this normal? Or from cyclical drought? Or part of a trend related to a drying climate? Borers? Something else?

Or is the Huon joining the long list of regions around the world experiencing tree death, places such as these.

I’ll post up a few more tree pix in due course.

Free range too eggspensive for Tazgov

The Tasmanian Government has gone to caged eggs not long after giving grants to producers to produce more free range eggs … external story here.

Fortunately the average Jo wields plenty of power in his or her choices at the shops. Here’s a good story about Australian egg-buying preferences … here.

And a cage farming video, don’t watch it before your bacon and egg breakfast tho … https://youtu.be/Myqgi0Y-aXg

Soil and fuel dryness at a high

These maps show Tasmanian soil and fuel dryness in mid 2019
These maps show Tasmanian soil and fuel dryness in mid 2019. The numbers are explained below.

Tasmania’s soil and fuel dryness for mid-2019 is more severe than mid-2018, which went on to produce one of Tasmania’s worst fire seasons.

Take a look at the maps above, borrowed from the www.Fire.Tas.gov.au and BOM websites today.

The June 2018 figures, in tabbed format, are below.

Those are impressive dry soil and fuel figures above, mainly on the east coast and midlands, but extending south to Hobart.

Prolonged, heavy rain could fix it. Let’s hope so.

I am no fire expert, but it seems clear that without rain, much of Tassie will be a tinderbox for the 2019/20 summer.

Keep in mind that the previous summer, with vast bushfires across Tasmania, lit by dry lightning, was not a new normal, but just another year in the planet’s upshift to a new, more extreme climate.

As I write this the northern hemisphere (now in summer) is alight.

Global ice is hitting record lows, some of it disappearing faster than forecast.

With Tasmania’s fire history, there’s never been a better time to remove pine trees, eucalypts and other flammable vegetation from around homes.

Where there is enough water to do so, replant with less dangerous trees.

Fire pumps and even bunkers should be considered. Have a fire escape plan.

Check out www.Fire.Tas.gov.au and other fire websites to get the good oil straight from the experts.

June 2018 solid and fuel dryness data
June 2018 solid and fuel dryness data

Key to the numbers from BOM

Drought Factor (DF)
The impact of KBDI, and any periods of recent rainfall that might dampen fine forest fuels such as ground litter, is incorporated into the fire danger index through another variable known as the Drought Factor (DF). The DF reflects the degree of availability of these fine forest fuels for combustion. It ranges from 0 to 10 with 10 representing the highest value of short-term rainfall deficiency and highest availability of fine fuels. The DF is calculated daily, once 24 hour rainfalls are available. Due to assumed interception by forest canopies, rainfall amounts of 3 mm or less are reset to zero in updating the DF.

Mount Soil Dryness Index (MSDI)
The MSDI is a measure of the longer-term dryness. The MSDI changes according to the evapo-transpiration and effective rainfall each day. It is a number between 0 and 200 mm, which roughly represents the amount of rain (in mm) needed to saturate the top layer of soil. SDI Primary uses one canopy class, and SDI Secondary has the option to use a different second canopy class.

TEOTWAWKIT

Tasmania ... cold and misty one day, on fire the next
Tasmania … cold and misty one day, on fire the next

If you didn’t already know, TEOTWAWKIT stands for “the end of the world as we know it”.

The phrase appeared so much in online banter it required an acronym.

TEOTWAWKIT has been used to title an episode in a zombie TV series, and is now the title or theme of umpteen blogs and websites.

TEOTWAWKIT is relevant to Tasmania because people across the globe are looking to the island as a potential refuge from climate change.

Tassie may be a good place to escape heat, but it is already suffering from climate change.

Is the Apple Isle a climate refuge? Here’s some discussion on another site.

Tasmanian Life